Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 8.542916 9.484944 10.514102 11.726398 13.121052 14.681975 16.570579
2025-12-07 6.985128 8.165922 9.544114 11.286336 13.451083 16.080377 19.558903
2025-12-14 5.982925 7.228674 8.746204 10.756489 13.388610 16.773719 21.550524
2025-12-21 5.371052 6.663756 8.294088 10.538935 13.610664 17.760235 23.958338
2025-12-28 5.341162 6.813130 8.738778 11.502537 15.470911 21.133838 30.160319
2026-01-04 5.065252 6.601302 8.668931 11.735442 16.312493 23.144491 34.645842
2026-01-11 4.666801 6.183780 8.271566 11.449009 16.340610 23.913367 37.251200
2026-01-18 4.492141 6.059379 8.268659 11.727212 17.236827 26.122834 42.604738
2026-01-25 4.204485 5.750063 7.969780 11.522507 17.338067 27.032252 45.793820
2026-02-01 3.962973 5.489755 7.721009 11.367609 17.493447 28.035317 49.306318
2026-02-08 3.738011 5.238389 7.465918 11.176541 17.560519 28.877874 52.634458
2026-02-15 3.523492 4.989124 7.196093 10.936422 17.513154 29.496032 55.598114
2026-02-22 3.359086 4.813202 7.038868 10.887224 17.828845 30.894191 60.652524
2026-03-01 3.133478 4.530193 6.694469 10.494033 17.482913 30.972276 62.793519
2026-03-08 2.908931 4.236613 6.314947 10.010045 16.918854 30.539880 63.650481
2026-03-15 2.760194 4.055292 6.107339 9.811393 16.874991 31.165996 67.215443
2026-03-22 2.827795 4.223568 6.486397 10.690690 19.019363 36.744654 84.894373
2026-03-29 2.767680 4.179004 6.502136 10.902946 19.849177 39.565487 96.004466
2026-04-05 2.630978 4.000259 6.276244 10.641893 19.666817 40.017816 100.347745
2026-04-12 2.588053 3.976284 6.317928 10.895447 20.604557 43.289208 114.347179
2026-04-19 2.478468 3.833672 6.141469 10.708894 20.561484 44.130644 120.764287
2026-04-26 2.382823 3.710611 5.993360 10.567677 20.605136 45.201820 128.328104
2026-05-03 2.288231 3.585221 5.834501 10.393421 20.556132 46.024788 135.301174